Forecast · not a promise
When retail stops being the majority
Flippening here means implied retail drops through 50% of circulating supply. Today it is still 66.6%. That is a leftover, not a wallet count.
Stall
Jun 2046
Net institutional adds ~250k BTC/year. ETFs leak, treasuries slow.
+19.9 years from this edition
Recent pace
Aug 2031
About the last 12 months: corporates +~280k, ETFs +~500k.
+5.0 years from this edition
Fast
Aug 2029
ETFs keep absorbing more than new issuance and treasuries still bid.
+3.0 years from this edition
Today implied retail 13370890 of 20070534 circulating. Named institutions 2999644.
The arithmetic
- Circulating 20,070,534
- Implied retail 13,370,890 (66.6%)
- Named institutions 2,999,644
- Institutions needed for a 50% flip 6,335,267
- Still to go 3,335,623
The rest of this site uses IBIT as a funds floor so we do not invent a live ETF total. This chart uses the April 2026 US spot-complex print of ~1.5M BTC instead — otherwise the forecast pretends most ETFs do not exist. Both numbers are labeled. Edition 2026-08-15.
Historic anchors
Solid copper is reconstructed residual history. White dots are cited prints. Grey corporates before August 2025 are Strategy’s 10-K plus a reconstructed rest-of-list — not a census.
| Date | Retail % | Inst. BTC | Quality | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-11 | 77.7% | 421,454 | reconstructed | Strategy first 8-K. GBTC already a large closed-end stack (order-of-magnitude). |
| 2020-12-31 | 77.3% | 520,470 | reconstructed | Strategy YE 2020: 70,470 (company). Funds ≈ GBTC, reconstructed. |
| 2021-12-31 | 76.0% | 831,400 | reconstructed | Strategy 124,391 (10-K) + Tesla + miners, reconstructed remainder. El Salvador starts Sep 2021. |
| 2022-12-31 | 76.2% | 875,000 | reconstructed | Strategy 132,500 (10-K). Tesla sold down. GBTC still the fund. |
| 2023-12-31 | 76.1% | 980,000 | reconstructed | Strategy 189,150 (10-K). Pre-spot-ETF. |
| 2024-01-11 | 76.0% | 994,220 | cited | GBTC converts holding ~619,220 BTC (TrendSpider recap of the conversion). |
| 2024-12-31 | 71.7% | 1,910,000 | reconstructed | Strategy 447,470 (10-K). Other corporates + first-year ETF complex, reconstructed. |
| 2025-04-25 | 71.3% | 1,995,000 | cited | US spot ETFs ~965k (Bitcoin Magazine, Apr 2025). Corporates interpolated toward the Aug 2025 census. |
| 2025-08-01 | 69.6% | 2,351,861 | cited | 102 public companies, 1,001,861 BTC (CoinGecko via Kazemikhasragh et al., Aug 2025). |
| 2026-04-07 | 67.1% | 2,890,000 | cited | US spot ETFs ~1.5M BTC (Investing.com / Bitwise, Apr 2026). Corporates interpolated. |
| 2026-08-15 | 66.6% | 2,999,644 | cited | Corporates: CoinGecko API this edition (179 names). Funds held at the April 2026 1.5M print (no newer complex total). |